No, I shouldn't be able to answer this question. That is the job of the game developer, not a person who is a fan. You are projecting your expectations of me, not what you should be expecting.
You originally asked today for the TL;DR on the status of your bet. I gave you a 5-word response that is an honest and valid take on the status as it is today. Since your $50 bet (which I have bookmarked, btw), Uberpie released the most successful update of his career at the end of June/beginning of July and, even after the usual dip after a peak on a release month, he has seen his monthly earnings continue to rise over the trendline.
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Also since that time, he has posted more Patreon updates than just about any other time between releases in recent years - keeping in contact with his patrons.
So, yes, the TL;DR status of your bet is that "your bet is doing poorly." Objectively and subjectively.
Finally, if you have a problem with that - go cry on Uberpie's shoulder in his discord. He hasn't logged into F95 in over a year and hasn't chatted in the public forum of this site in over 5 years.