One thing is certain, that the last two drops were the biggest one since last october. Its pretty clear that a few more such botch and he gonna be back where he was at early DoD days. I don't think he would make such long series of mistakes though. I hope not.
Situation is not yet dire though but i don't think he could/should feel safe and hopefully this never even crossed his mind. Gotta pull his shit together. This drop was to be expected if he is a realist but if he retains/regains his focus then this isn't a lost cause at all. To simply put the "big leap" didn't work out but things are still going forward.
I hope he doesn't try to to pull out miracles of his sleeves instead of just simply doing a fine job. Thats what i personally miss right now and consider the reason behind the bleeding: Poor artisanship. If the engine issues are fixed and content starts to roll out everything will be back on track and i find it hard to imagine that this could prove to be an impossible task for him
Of course the longer it takes the more he loses. Its just common sense. I'm certain he knows this too. But right now its worth the cost of delaying release to make absolutely certain that the next release is flawless. Otherwise he'd never get out of the loop of hasty, buggy releases. If he fails to do that then he still have enough "reserves" to survive it but those reserves are finite.